What happened in March?
Last month was an interesting month with article 50 being triggered and a few other major news releases making the markets volatile particularly at the beginning of the month and then article 50 was triggered the FTSE100 and the DAX moved sideward. For the FTSE100 and the DAX it was a bullish month. If you was to buy the Dax on the first day of the month and left it till the last day you would of had a gain of 504 pips... If you were to do that on the FTSE100 you would have had 115 pips so collectively if you was long on them two from the beginning of the month to the end you would of earned yourself 619 pips out of two trades but lets get back to reality as you would of been stopped out by you dynamic stop loss within the first week.
So what's on the cards in April?
At the start of April we could see the peak of the DAX and the FTSE100 the main focus at the beginning of the month is the US dollar there are plenty of 'red flag' news releases that could have a force on the euro and the pound in turn effecting the FTSE100 and the DAX. The end of the month has a few 'Red flag' events with the euro and the pound so it will be more volatile for these two at the end of the month however Wednesday the 5th through to the Friday the 7th will be choppy for these two. Follow this link to see the forex calendar. www.forexfactory.com/
It can be difficult to say where these two are going to finish at the end of April but here are some key areas simplified.
if the dax continues its bullish trend we could see the break of resistance and price will more than likely bounce off of resistance 2 and one. If the Dax starts to correct its self where its been over extended we could see price hit resistance. I would still be looking to go long in this instance so for me I would be waiting for the price to hit support 1 and look for a long setup on a smaller time frame..
As you can see on the graph the FTSE100 is a bit up and down (mainly down) but what you have to look at is the big extension that happened on the 1st of March. After big moves they try to correct there self's and this is what's happening now. For me I would leave the FTSE until it decides whether it wants to bounce off of support 1 or close beneath and continue the short bearish trend.
price forecasts are based on historical data and future news releases and are not a guarantee.
Last week was a bullish week for both the FTSE100 and the GER30 it started off at the beginning of the week as normal but then on Tuesday 14th it fell bearish which is what I was expecting and it made my best trade of the week which capped 172pips off of 2 dual entries. when they both fell they hit a previous tested low and rallied up to new highs.
last week being a very choppy week for currency's it was choppy at times for the DAX and FTSE after times of large movements which has happened for these two the index's will stay range bound. what normally happens after time consolidating the markets can either shoot into the sky or sink into the ground and where the markets have been consolidating will then become a support or a resistance. I suspect both the FTSE100 and GER30 will spend most of this week in a sideward movement making trading slightly difficult to trade.
Key events this week
Tuesday 21st march- This day has a few events revolving the GBP so it could be an interesting day and possibly enough to break the sideways movement. 8 reports surrounding the GBP in total only one 'red flag' .
GBP- CPI Tuesday 21st march this is a red flag event and could play on the pound in doing so it will effect the FTSE100. Remember 'Down for the pound up for the FTSE'.
GBP- Retail sales m/m Thursday 23rd march this is another 'red flag' event for the GBP this report is sandwiched between the ECB Economic bulletin and the CBI realized sales all before the London session opens it could be a choppy open for the FTSE100.
EURO- Friday 24th March With 6 flash PMI'S it will be choppy for the FRENCH40 and the GER30 these reports are before the market open so I will be sitting on my hands and waiting for the whipsawing to stop and a trend to start.
UK100- Tuesday is an important day for the ftse100 and will be a day that I think it will break consolidation on the upside and continue its bullish move maybe heading towards the 7470 mark.
Ger30- With the more important news heading towards the later part of the week that will be the focus on the DAX. I think it will continue to stay range bound but may test new highs at the end of the week.
All forecasts are used by historical data and future news reports, no certainty is insured.
what's went on over the last week?
With the FTSE100 and the GER30 rocketing over the last couple of weeks people are waiting for the over extension and falling of these index's. Could next week be the one? With the Retail PMI for all euro retail sales hitting only 49.9 (Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction). Which is not unexpected during this time after Christmas and before summer. The scheduled news last week affecting the FTSE100 was the British Retail Consortium Report (Leads the government-released retail data by about 10 days, but has a narrower focus as it only includes retailers who belong to the BRC.) which was -0.4% Slightly better than February.
Things to watch in the next week. GER30 (DAX)
With plenty of news releases this coming week its going to be a choppy week but I suspect a downward slope. a number of companies have the 'record' date on Thursday but the main thing I would be looking for would be ECB Draghi speaks on Monday. although this has no connection to the FTSE100/GER30 it has a major influence on the markets and can affect these two. MPC Official Bank Rate Votes also Official Bank Rate this could have a swing on the sterling which in turn will have an effect on the FTSE100. you also have the BOE Quarterly Bulletin which is a good commentary on market movements but is normally muted as information is normally released early.
FTSE100- my weeks forecast is that the FTSE100 will fall this week. The beginning of the week may see highs nearing towards 7400 but with the bank rate forecast to stay the same and other releases potentially being positive to the sterling we could see a weakening in the FTSE100.
GER30- With more news releases this week the focus will be to do with the usdollar and the euro this should effect the dax quite a bit but as a general rule the FTSE100 moves with the GER30 so if its a bullish or a bearish week for one the other tends to go down too. I can see highs at the beginning of the week subject to draghi's talks. The Ger30 shouldn't continue this pull back it should find support around that lower box.
Please not these are only predictions based on historical data and future news reports.
Written by Ashton Hunt
Any help needed or any advice don't hesitate to email me. Ashtonhunt45@hotmail.co.uk
With the current explosion in value to the UK100 and the GER30 many market analysers are spreading the threat of deflation along all the index's. The current boom in value for these two index's are caused by the financial mess the global economy is in. The euro is on its knees and the pound is currently under pressure with brexit this has caused company's inside the UK100 or GER30 (or nicknamed the DAX) to soar to the highest values since the began. The majority of these company's don't trade there own currency a lot of it is to do with the dollar. This week Monday the 6th of march we have seen the UK100 and the GER30 open bearish. My forecast for the next week for the two pairs will be;
Dax (GER30) This week has been a bearish start and I think it will continue it will try and find support between S1 11925.25 if it touches this it may over extend and bounce back or if it closes under this we will be looking at a breakdown and will seek support at S2.
FTSE100; As a principal rule whenever the European index's are rocketing the FTSE100 isn't far behind as the thing propelling the others does that to, in return when they are bearish or over extended they crumble together as you can see a pattern. I can see the FTSE100 bouncing between the S2 7327.87 and S3 7299..07 as the week goes if the FTSE100 breaks s3 we could see a massive crumble in price.
Author: Ashton Hunt
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