what's went on over the last week?
With the FTSE100 and the GER30 rocketing over the last couple of weeks people are waiting for the over extension and falling of these index's. Could next week be the one? With the Retail PMI for all euro retail sales hitting only 49.9 (Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction). Which is not unexpected during this time after Christmas and before summer. The scheduled news last week affecting the FTSE100 was the British Retail Consortium Report (Leads the government-released retail data by about 10 days, but has a narrower focus as it only includes retailers who belong to the BRC.) which was -0.4% Slightly better than February.
Things to watch in the next week. GER30 (DAX)
With plenty of news releases this coming week its going to be a choppy week but I suspect a downward slope. a number of companies have the 'record' date on Thursday but the main thing I would be looking for would be ECB Draghi speaks on Monday. although this has no connection to the FTSE100/GER30 it has a major influence on the markets and can affect these two. MPC Official Bank Rate Votes also Official Bank Rate this could have a swing on the sterling which in turn will have an effect on the FTSE100. you also have the BOE Quarterly Bulletin which is a good commentary on market movements but is normally muted as information is normally released early.
FTSE100- my weeks forecast is that the FTSE100 will fall this week. The beginning of the week may see highs nearing towards 7400 but with the bank rate forecast to stay the same and other releases potentially being positive to the sterling we could see a weakening in the FTSE100.
GER30- With more news releases this week the focus will be to do with the usdollar and the euro this should effect the dax quite a bit but as a general rule the FTSE100 moves with the GER30 so if its a bullish or a bearish week for one the other tends to go down too. I can see highs at the beginning of the week subject to draghi's talks. The Ger30 shouldn't continue this pull back it should find support around that lower box.
Please not these are only predictions based on historical data and future news reports.
Written by Ashton Hunt
Any help needed or any advice don't hesitate to email me. Ashtonhunt45@hotmail.co.uk
Author: Ashton Hunt
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