WTI Crude has staged the greatest rally since the beginning of 2016, when crude oil doubled in just four months.
The daily chart below shows a 35% gain in less than five months from the low in June. The price recently sailed through the previous high set in January of this year at $55.24 and is revisiting levels not seen since mid 2015.
A fantastic run for bulls, but can this continue?
The weekly chart below shows the longer-term picture, showing the stunning collapse in the first half of the chart from just over $112 to a low of just over two years later at $26.05. Bulls want to know if this is just the start of the trend or just a bounce in a longer term bear trend.
The daily chart above certainly looks very positive with resistance of any major concern above. The price is well above any downward sloping trendlines and accelerating away from the longer term moving averages. The blue 100 day moving average has begun to turn higher and look set to cross over the 200 day moving average for a bullish signal in the days ahead. The 55 day moving average has already crossed above both these and is accelerating higher. We are even pushing above the outer boundaries of the Bollinger bands. Is there nothing to hold the bulls back?
As you know by now, I always warn it is very important to monitor the longer-term charts, no matter how much of a short term trader you are. Back to the weekly chart below you see the price approaching an important longer term 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at $58.97. Coupled with that is equally important downward sloping 200 week moving average, just starting to dip below this Fibonacci level.
This is the most important area of resistance, as we crossed back above the 23.6% Fibonacci level and 100 day moving average at $46.20/46.40. In severely overbought conditions on both the daily and weekly charts, there is an obvious risk of a peak to the 22 month recovery. Just above at that $59 level meets the upward sloping 17 month trendline (from June 2016) at around $60.50.
Bulls will need to break through this level to remain in full control of the price, and then tackle the (less important) 2015 year high at $62.58.
If you are a WTI Crude bear looking for a low risk selling opportunity, it could be worth trying shorts in the $59-$60 area with a stop above that 2015 year high. There is great profit potential on a short position if we reject those resistance levels, with a move back below the January high at $55.24, signalling further weakness. We should then target the mid-$53 area before testing the September high at $52.86, but there is certainly room to move as far as strong support in the $47-$46 area.
This article was provided by Jason Sen, founder of Day Trade Ideas. Jason is a 30 year trading veteran that began trading on the LIFFE Exchange floor back in the 80's. Since then he has gone onto become a prominent Forex, Futures, and Options analyst for many of the major banks, hedge funds, prop firms, and retail traders. His analysis and articles are viewed by thousands every single day, and help them make better trading decisions. You can get in touch with Jason through the following methods.
If you have not yet checked out the video interview we did with Jason make sure to do so by CLICKING HERE.
At the time of writing this article Bitcoin is near it's all time high, $7275 verse the United States Dollar. This of course raises the obvious question of whether or not now is a good time to begin buying crypto-currencies, let alone bitcoin. I have been fascinated with bitcoin since the time I first heard about it back in 2012. But, as a very conservative investor I wanted to do my proper due diligence before investing my hard earned money. Having had high and low periods in terms of making money I know how hard it is to make a dollar, so I did not want to blindly throw my money down the drain so to speak. After just over a year of research and watching bitcoin become more stable I finally came to the determination that I should purchase at least some bitcoin. This was in early February 2014 when Bitcoin was trading just around $220 per coin. My plan was to purchase 10 coins, which at the time was not a lot, but all the articles I read said bitcoin has a chance to reach $30,000 in the near future. So the risk reward ratio was heavily in my favor, risk $2,200 to make $300,000.
So, now I have my investment figured out and after doing all the research I came to the conclusion that Mt. Gox was the best and most trustworthy place to purchase your bitcoin. Back in 2013/14 Mt. Gox was doing about 70% of all transactions according to Wikipedia. So, I began the process of opening an account at Mt. Gox. Back then there was not as much AML/KYC as there is now so it was a pretty quick process. Now my account is opened, I have my bank account synced, and just as I am about to deposit the money and purchase my bitcoins rumors started circulating about Mt. Gox going under. This made me pause for a couple of day and low and behold during that time Mt. Gox went bankrupt during that period of time. Not only that, but they made off with something like $80 million worth of bitcoin in the process. I come from the Forex industry and brokers stealing money from clients like this happened all the time before regulation became stronger. So, this immediately made me re-evaluate and come to the conclusion that at the moment investing in bitcoin or other crypto-currencies was not for me because what is to stop the next person from stealing my bitcoin.
Fast Forward to early 2017...............................................
Bitcoin hardly slowed down in popularity at all from the Mt. Gox scandal. It continued to grow in popularity and government regulators were starting to take notice. They started to form some regulation around Bitcoin and other crytpo-currencies, mainly in the form of regulating the exchanges that they are traded on. This had an immediate impact and the price of bitcoin began to rise again, quickly surpassing $1000 again in early 2017. I also took notice, but like the cautious investor I am I still was not sold on investing. So, I starting doing my research again and came to the conclusion that it was safe to invest in bitcoin. But, by the time I came to this conclusion BTCUSD was already trading around $3000 on Bitstamp. My initial investment of $2200 wasn't even going to buy me a single coin.
I just couldn't justify buying a fraction of a coin, it just didn't make sense to me. This led me to exploring alternative crypto-currencies such as Etherum, Ripple, Lite Coin, and others. But, I just was not convinced that any of them will have the same long term investment opportunity as bitcoin. Every time I thought about investing in one of the coins I quickly began to doubt it and didn't pull the trigger. At this stage I have yet to invest in a single crypto-currency. Time just keeps passing by, the popularity of crypto-currencies continues to grow, the price continues to go up, and I am just sitting on the side lines.
I have done the research on the major crypto-currencies listed above and I keep coming back to wanting to invest in Ripple, or more specifically XRPUSD. Bitcoin just seems like it is ripe for a massive correction, similar to the tulip mania. The price of bitcoin just keeps skyrocketing, which cannot last forever. I honestly believe we might see a 30-50% correction in the bitcoin market. So, I don't want to invest in that product yet, and most others seem unstable, except for Ripple.
I have heard that there are so many Ripple coins available, 100 billion to be exact, that it is not worth investing in it because the price will never increase.
I have heard that the only crypto-currency that will survive is Bitcoin.
I have heard that Ripple is a scam because the company owns over 50% of all the available XRP and it is just about propping up their currency.
I have heard that same company keeps the price or XRP artificially high.
But I also have heard positive things about Ripple, such as they deal with a lot of large companies making it more efficient and cheaper for them to do business.
So, I am proposing the question to our viewers. With roughly $2,000 to invest, is it worth it to invest in Crypto-Currencies at all? Is it worth it to invest in Ripple (XRP), or should I be looking to invest in one of the other crypto-currencies out there? I would love to hear everyone's opinion, so let me know in the comments section below.
As many of you probably have noticed, we have been following Day Trade Ideas for several years now. In fact, Jason Sen was our first ever guest on the DrinkForex podcast. There is a reason for that, Jason in a true professional who has been around the trading industry for his entire life. In fact, trading and providing analysis are the only jobs that Jason has ever held and he has been doing it for a very long time, 30+ years. Anyone who has been around that long has figured something out, which is why we had him on the show in the first place. But, we must admit that we did not subscribe to his service at that time, in fact it took over a year before we finally subscribed to his service. There is a reason for that, like most traders we just didn't understand the need to pay for analysis or trade signals because there is so much out there available for free. But we began receiving Day Trade Ideas analysis a few months back and we have never looked back. Before we get into the actual analysis and subscriptions let's first discuss who Jason Sen is, as it is important to understand his background to truly appreciate the analysis provided.
Before we get into that though we will be upfront about our review. Day Trade Ideas is a contributor to our site. So for our review we tried to focus on the facts of who is behind Day Trade Ideas, the cost, and what you get for your money. As with anything, we believe you should do your own research and not just blindly follow anybody.
BACKGROUND ON JASON
Jason Sen has been a trader and analysis for over 30 years. When he was 19 he began making markets in the pits of the LIFFE exchange for his own account. At the time he traded primarily options, which anyone around the trading industry knows are very complex. Often times people say Forex and Futures are Checkers, but options are more like Chess. A lot more moving parts and things to keep track of. Jason continued to trade in the pits until 2001 when the LIFFE exchange closed, after which he successfully made the transition to screen trading where he has been ever since. Additionally, when he made the transition to screen trading he added in Forex and Futures trading as he then had the ability to trade more markets. Around 2008 he was approached by several banks, hedge funds, and proprietary trading groups about writing analysis to help their traders. He did this for several years before expanding to offering that analysis to retail traders in 2012, which is when Day Trade Ideas really began.
The Analysis at Day Trade Ideas covers many markets. As we are writing this article they cover EURUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, EURJPY, Bitcoin, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, WTI Crude, Corn, Soybeans, Gold, Silver, Dow Jones, S&P 500, FTSE 100, German Dax, Euro Stoxx, Canadian TSX, 10 year Bund, and 10 Year Canadian Bonds. It is incredible that him and his team can write that much analysis every single day. Now that we have covered Jason's background and the products covered at Day Trade Ideas we can move onto the actual analysis.
Technical Vs. Fundamental:
Day Trade Ideas 100% focuses on the Technical Analysis. If you are looking for Fundamental analysis or a combination of Technical and Fundamentals then this is not the analysis for you.
Jason primarily uses several technical setups and indicators when providing his analysis: Moving Averages, Trend Lines, Fibonannci Levels, and Stochastics. Breaking it down even further though, he really uses the 50 and 100 period Moving Average + Fibonannci to make his trading decisions. But, everyone of his charts will include some combination of the above indicators.
There are several different subscriptions you can register for at Day Trade Ideas, individual products or Premium Subscriptions. The only difference between the two is that for Premium you receive all of the products covered at a discount price vs. if you paid for each individually. Individual products cost £49.99 and the Premium Forex Service costs £199 pounds, but includes every currency pair + Bitcoin.
What you get for your money:
Once you subscribe to the service you will receive login credentials to the client back office. Each day before 6am GMT this is where the analysis will be uploaded. At the top of the analysis is a recap section of the specific pair/product from the prior day. It includes what happened for that pair for the day and how well the analysis favored. Moving down from there you will see a chart that shows the intraday, daily, and weekly trend. Underneath the chart is the full analysis for the day. Jason provides clear levels and what he is looking to do around those specific levels. He provides several different levels and scenarios to truly prepare you for the day. We have seen some analysis say things like, "we are going to buy at X price and hold until Y price". But, often times the price never reaches X and you are left confused for the rest of the day because it did not work out.
Day Trade Ideas analysis though provides several levels and scenarios so that you are prepared for the entire day. If a target area is reached, most days he will have a second and third target level so you can continue to trade that pair and know what is going to happen. On the flip side, if his initial analysis doesn't work out he provides a clear plan for the alternative trade. For example, if he is initially looking long, but the longs are not playing out well for that day, he provides levels where a trader should begin looking short, and targets to the downside.
In addition to the written analysis Jason also provides a daily Excel sheet with additional levels and several times a month does video analysis.
We give Day Trade Ideas analysis an A-. We believe that the analysis is top of the line, and being delivered by a true professional that really knows his stuff. We do believe though that the price is a little steep, especially for new traders. It can be difficult to justify spending almost $60 USD per month for a single report. But, overall, for those who do have the ability to afford this cost they most certainly will find great value in the reports and quickly make back the money in profits.
If you want to learn more about DayTradeIdeas and their analysis you can check out their website by clicking the below link.
CLICK HERE TO VISIT DAY TRADE IDEAS WEBSITE